Fishmeal prices had seen a spike in May as biomass measurements were very low, at 4.4 million Mt, and below the required 5m Mt minimum of to start the season, said Rabobank analyst, Gorjan Nikolik.
He said due to the fact that El Niño receded and there had been a lot of juveniles in the last season in Peru, industry was hopeful for a good 2016 first season, but the low biomass measurement delayed things. “It [the season] was supposed to get underway in May. Also, the expectations had been that it would be a small quota with some even fearing that it would not even be opened, similar to what happened in 2014. Needless to say, prices responded to that scarcity,” the analyst told FeedNavigator.
But the end of last week saw Peru’s ministry of production, Produce, finally set this year’s quota for the first anchovy fishing period in the critical north central coastal area at 1.8m Mt with the season set to run from 1 July and last until the quota is met or the winter reproduction cycle begins.
Produce made the announcement following the receipt of a report from the country’s marine institute, Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), which estimated the total anchovy biomass in the area as 7.28Mt as of last Wednesday, 15 June.
The ministry also noted the biomass observed by IMARPE is an amount 65% higher than the first estimate in May and is 14% higher than the historical average between 1994 and 2015. It said the situation has arisen from the substantial improvements in oceanographic conditions of the Peruvian sea.
Lower prices but uncertainties remain
Lower fishmeal prices are likely as a result of this development, with a slide already apparent, said Nikolik.
“And a further drop during the fishing season is possible.
“But there are also uncertainties as demand from China is coming back after a slow start and, also because this fishing season is quite short - it is starting more than a month later, and has an end date in August.
“It could be that the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is not fully caught. If catch rates are significantly below, then the TAC prices will start to go up again,” said the Rabobank expert.
Piero Ghezzi, Peru’s production minister welcomed the IMARPE study: “It is evident that the 2015-2016 El Niño event has already ended and that its effects on the stock of anchoveta have been less harmful than the El Niño event of 1997-1998.”
He added that the conditions for the habitat of the anchoveta have substantially improved since there was a 200% increase in cold areas.
"Once again it has been demonstrated that the current changing conditions of the Peruvian sea require an adaptive and flexible policy, which means making decisions based on more than one measurement,” added the minister.