“Markets were all about the USDA report, some big numbers were seen but some not quite as big as the market had expected,” said CRM AgriCommodities in a note on the outlook.
The US corn crop is forecast to have a record 16 billion bushels, up from last year due to an increase in plantings and a return to trend yield. The yield is forecast at 178.5 bushels per acre.
The outlook for 2020/21 US wheat is for smaller supplies, lower domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks.
US soybeans are forecast to have higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2019/20.
The US soybean crop is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, an increase of 568m from last year on a hike in harvested area and yields.
Global soybean production is forecast at 26.6MT higher, at 362.8M, with Brazil’s crop rising 7MT to 131M, Argentina’s crop is up 2.5MT to 53.5M along with the hike in US production.
Global grain outlook
"The USDA report offered a first insight into the 2020/21 crop and it was clear that global supplies of grains for both old and new crop will not be in short supply. Global grain prices will remain under pressure particularly with world economies slowing unless a sustained production issues is seen. The market still remains focused on weather for the next six weeks and a major deterioration in crop conditions will need to be seen if any rallies are to last," James Bolesworth, director, CRM, told FeedNavigator.
China is expected to produce a record wheat crop of 135MT in 2020/21.
The Australian wheat crop is seen at 24MT, an increase of 8.8MT on last season.
The EU wheat crop expected to drop by 12MT to 143MT due to reduced area and lower yields, while the Ukraine wheat crop was slightly reduced, at 28MT, but it will still be the second largest on record, according to thr UK based commodities market intelligence group.
Black Sea research firm, SovEcon, reduced their estimate for the Russian wheat crop to 81.2MT from 84.4MT, still well above last year’s 73.6MT crop.
US meat and dairy production
The USDA outlook for US red meat and poultry production for 2021 is projected to be above 2020 as the sector continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19 in 2020.
Interestingly the WASDE report sees US milk production for 2021 coming in higher than 2020 on stronger expected growth in milk per cow, despite a slightly smaller dairy cow herd.
Commercial exports on a fat basis are about the same as 2020 while skim-solids basis exports are forecast higher than 2020 on relatively firm demand. Imports on both a fat basis and skim-solid basis are forecast above 2020. With improved domestic and export demand, the USDA forecasts that all dairy products prices will be higher in 2021.
