Iraqi grain production, though, may not rebound in a similar pattern in MY 2020/21 as it did in MY 2019/20 due to a shortage of rainfall coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Iraq’s oil-dependent economy and movement restrictions that limit the ability for farmers to cultivate their grain, reported the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The US federal agency’s report shows total corn consumption in MY 2020/21 will likely reach 720 TMT on growing feed demands of the domestic poultry and aquaculture sectors.
“Yellow corn in Iraq is mainly used by poultry feed mills but the use of corn by the aquaculture sector is also increasing. Traders supply most imported corn to feed mills. These suppliers generally price their product including freight and offer credit terms. Feed mills prefer imported corn, especially South American origin, due to the quality, moisture rate, and low occurrence of aflatoxins.”
The publication outlines how less than average yields per unit area of wheat and barley are predicted due to late and insufficient rainfall in growing areas. However, an increase in planned planted area for wheat and barley may compensate for yield declines, said the agency.
The USDA forecasts MY 2020/21 total barley consumption to reach 1.685 MMT. Iraqis generally use barley as animal feed for sheep, goats, and beef and dairy cattle; it competes directly with feed grade wheat.
ASF still undermining feed demand in the Philippines
Meanwhile, in another recent outlook, the USDA predicts that feed wheat demand in the Philippines will decline in 2020/2021 as a result of the continued African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in that country.
Overall, MY 20/21 wheat imports in that Asian market are set to reduce from 7.2m to 7m tons, forecasts the US federal agency.
Used mainly in swine feed, the decline in feed wheat demand reflects the expected drop in pig herd numbers as a result of the ASF outbreak that started August 2019. Although the spread has slowed and remains limited to Luzon and parts of Mindanao, the Philippines continues to note new cases of the disease, noted the USDA report.
Corn imports, however, will increase from 500,000 to 600,000 tons due to firm feed demand from a steadily expanding broiler industry, it maintains.
“Feed corn demand will increase in tandem with the projected 3% expansion in poultry output in MY 2020/21. The local poultry industry was projected for stronger growth, but the closure of the food service sector during the pandemic significantly limited demand.”
Lower animal feed consumption in Southeast Asia
The combination of quarantine measures, negative economic growth, and lingering ASF impacts is expected to reduce animal protein consumption and production in Southeast Asia in 2020, which will translate to lower animal feed consumption in the region, said Rabobank in an industry note.
It estimates total demand for hog feed, broiler feed, layer feed, and aqua feed in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to decrease by 3.5% YOY, to 92.8m metric tons, after flat YOY demand growth in 2019 and an average YOY increase of 5.9% for the last five years.
Among those countries, Rabobank expects animal feed consumption to decrease the most in Vietnam in 2020 in terms of volumes.
"Total consumption of hog feed, broiler feed, layer feed, and aqua feed in Vietnam is forecast to decrease by 4.4% YOY, to 26.7m metric tons, in 2020, compared to a 7.6% decrease YOY in 2019. As a result, we expect total corn and soymeal consumption for animal feed in Vietnam to further decrease by 4.5% YOY, to 15.9m metric tons, in 2020 after an 8.9% YOY decrease last year and an average YOY increase of 8.3% for the last five years."
