In India, they see corn feed prices remaining bearish in 2021, with increased stocks due to reduced usage this year; this factor will help support production recovery in the poultry sector.
Demand is expected to move in an upward trajectory, after a tough year in 2020. Rabobank expects overall demand in 2021 to be back to near-2019 levels. That will mean a 13% volume growth in 2021 compared to 2020.
B2B demand recovery will be a key determinant of the pace of recovery, said the analysts.
“Consumer retail demand (70% share of total) for broilers is expected to improve in 2021, while B2B demand (30% share) will still take time to return to normal levels,” they forecast.
The analysts see a transition from informal (wet) to a formal poultry market segment, along with consolidation and integration of the industry.
The formal poultry market segment is expected to gain share at the expense of wet market, due to increasing consumer concerns over quality, along with the increasing adoption of modern retail/e-commerce and online deliveries.
Investments in feed, capacity expansion
Integrators will benefit, with investments in capacity expansion, feed manufacturing, and downstream distribution, said Rabobank.
“Integrators will gain share, due to expectations of a slow and partial recovery of small commercial farms. This will also lead to consolidation in the industry. Larger companies will look to integrate the business, with a focus on breeding and feed manufacturing in the upstream parts of the chain, while strengthening the retail distribution network in the downstream parts of the chain.”
We will continue to report on what Rabobank sees as the likely trajectory for various markets in its Global Animal Protein Outlook 2021 throughout the next week.
