March WASDE: US corn and soy supplies stable, record Aussie wheat production forecast

09-Mar-2021 - Last updated on 09-Mar-2021 at 18:54 GMT

The latest USDA WASDE changes were limited and mostly reflected known data, but it, nevertheless, can be viewed as a slightly bearish report, says Peter Collier, an analyst at UK based CRM Agri.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the March 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today.

Wheat

Much larger global supplies are seen for wheat, with increased consumption, higher exports, and overall reduced ending stocks this month, he said.

Australian production has been increased to a record 33MT, up from the previous 30MT estimate, based on the latest ABARES estimate, passing the previous 2016/17 record of 31.8MT.

World 2020/21 consumption is increased 6.6MT to 775.9MT as Chinese consumption is estimated to increase. Overall, the supply and demand factors are mostly known for old crop.

“However, the long-term political implications from the Russian export taxes are ongoing with concerns for the size of the Russian spring wheat area,” Collier told FeedNavigator.

Corn

This month’s 2020/21 US corn supply and use outlook was left unchanged from last month.

Additionally, global supply and demand estimates are comparable to last month’s data. Production estimates for Brazil and Argentina was not touched and Chinese import estimates were maintained at 24MT.

“Overall a limited WASDE, and April’s update will be closely watched for revised production estimates for Argentina. With ongoing dry conditions in Argentina, it is expected that production in some areas will have suffered.”

Oilseeds

As with corn, there is stability in US soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 when evaluating those again February’s data.

Soybean production estimates for Brazil are raised 1MT to 134MT, which raised some eyebrows, said Collier. “The USDA’s rational is that this reflects yield trends, while Argentina’s soybean production estimates are reduced 0.5MT to 47.5MT due to dry weather conditions over the past month.”

No amendments were made to Chinese demand estimates, with imports maintained at 100MT.

On rapeseed, production estimates for Australia was increased to 4MT, up from the previous 3.6MT estimate. EU+UK production estimates were also increased to 17.1MT, while imports were increased to 6.3MT, which “seems at odds to the dramatic price rise and increased production estimates.”