WASDE: US soybean production cut in surprise move

09-Nov-2021 - Last updated on 09-Nov-2021 at 17:54 GMT

A major change to production outlooks in the latest WASDE report has come in the shape of higher Russian wheat production estimates.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) today.

The Russian crop output forecast been raised by the USDA to 74.5Mt from 72.5Mt, with a 1Mt hike in export projections, noted Peter Collier, senior analyst and advisor, CRM Agri.

Nearly matching the increase in Russian supplies, though, was a cut to EU wheat production, down 1Mt to 138.4Mt, he reported.

Overall, global ending stocks in relation to wheat for this season have been slightly reduced to 275.8Mt, down from 277.18 in October. That will have the effect of further tightening supply, said the analysts.

Corn

The USDA increased US production outlooks for corn, up by 1.1Mt to 382.59Mt.

However, amid strong domestic consumption and maintained export projections, ending stocks, in terms of corn, were marginally trimmed, down from 38.1Mt to 37.94Mt.

Another increase to production estimates, this time for Argentina’s corn production, with that forecast up 1.5Mt, with the WASDE also increasing export forecasts by 1Mt.

“Other corn changes were fairly minimal, with one noticeable point to watch, Chinese import estimates were maintained at 26Mt,” Collier said.

Soybeans

While the USDA increased corn production estimates, they lowered the US soybean equivalent, in a surprise move, supporting soybean markets, commented the analyst.

However, with a trim to export projections, ending stocks were estimated to ease further.

Continuing the theme for trimming production, production estimates for Argentina soybeans were also reduced, down to 49.5Mt, added Collier.

“Overall, a slightly supportive USDA WASDE, but grains still reliant upon Chinese demand, and soybeans still face a large Brazilian crop later this season,” he concluded.