USDA anticipates higher corn output from Ukraine

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates​​ (WASDE) outlook on Friday.

In terms of the wheat prospects, production estimates for the US for 2022/23 US were increased, but only slightly, to 47.26Mt, up slightly from the May estimate of 47.05Mt, with a marginal rise in projected stocks, noted CRM Agri.

Russian wheat production estimates were also raised, at 81Mt up 1Mt from last month.

India has been increasingly in focus over the last month, and the USDA downwardly revised its wheat production estimates for that country to 106Mt, with exports forecast at 6.5Mt.

With so much uncertainty over Ukraine, supply and demand estimates in relation to wheat were left unchanged from last month, according to CRM Agri’s analysis.

Corn​

Current season US export projections for corn were revised lower to 62.23Mt from an estimated 63.5Mt in May, resulting in new crop US beginning stocks being marginally increased.

Overall, a slowing current season export pace resulted in a slight easing stock level for US corn next season, but there was no changes made to production estimates, commented the UK specialists.

Looking to Ukraine again, and the USDA increased production estimates for corn to 25Mt, up from 19.5Mt in May, based on data reported by that conflict hit country's government. although export projections at 9Mt were maintained.

Barley 

Barley production was lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that were partially offset by an increase for Germany.

Barley production for Australia and Ukraine was also reduced based on declines in area.  

Soy​

Current season US soybean export sales projections were raised yet again this month to 59.06Mt, up from 58.24Mt in May, resulting in a further decrease in US ending stocks, down to 5.58Mt from 6.39Mt in May. As a result, new season 2022/23 stock projections also tightened, according to the WASDE data.

In a separate oilseeds market outlook, the CRM Agri team said that with demand still strong for US soy, alongside the underlying support from crude oil, they remain bullish toward soybean markets, but they anticipate that, as the US crop develops, the bullish outlook will soften.

Rapeseed ​

In terms of rapeseed, the Black Sea conflict has resulted in long term supply risks, especially when combined with the lack of sunflower meal and oil, but Canadian production continues to be forecast to rebound and conditions in Europe are once again improving, said those UK commodity market analysts.

While the 2022/23 season is likely to remain elevated due to supply risk uncertainty, global supply is forecast to recover, they added.