Agri-commodity market tracker: USDA cuts Argentina's soybean output

09-Mar-2023 - Last updated on 09-Mar-2023 at 09:21 GMT

Grain ship at the Port of Paranagua in Brazil © GettyImages/Ziviani

The USDA forecast a cut in Argentina’s dryness-threatened soybean crop of 8Mt to a 14-year low of 33.0Mt, a bigger downgrade than investors had expected.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest WASDE yesterday.

Argentinian soy exports were also forecast lower, by 800Kt to 3.4Mt.

However, Brazilian soy exports were increased by 700Kt to 92.7Kt, and US soy exports were also given a boost, by 680kt to 54.8Kt “based on higher-than-expected shipments through February.”

The forecast for the US soybean crush, by contrast, was trimmed, reported the CRM Agri team.

Corn prospects

Forecasts for corn exports from both the US and Argentina both suffered downgrades, noted those analysts.

The US cut of 1.7Mt to 47.0Mt for 2022-23 reflected a “poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive US prices”, the USDA said.

Upgrade for Australian wheat crop

The USDA upgraded Australia’s wheat harvest, by 1Mt to 39.0Mt, close to the Abares estimate earlier this week, with the export estimate upgraded by 500Kt to 28.5Mt, also a record high.

Revisions to northern hemisphere countries were few, although the Kazakh crop was upgraded by 2.4Mt to an 11-year high of 16.4Mt.

The wheat market estimates also highlight the diverging fortunes of Argentina and Brazil, said the CRM Agri team.

While the forecast for Argentina’s wheat exports in 2022-23 was cut by a further 1.0Mt to an eight-year low of 6.5mt, Brazil, blessed by a bumper crop, received an upgrade of 500Kt to 4.4Mt in its export forecast.

Historically a major wheat buyer, Brazil is now expected to see net imports of 1.2Mt this season, the lowest in 34 years, commented the analysts.