It held its annual Grain Market Outlook (GMO) conference in York last week, with a session focusing on the outlook for global cereal and oilseed markets in 2023-24.
Despite declines in global barley and wheat production, total global cereal production is expected to increase, with a hike in corn production outweighing other declines.
Global corn production in 2023/24 is projected at 1,221 million tons by the USDA, up from 1,157 million tons last season.
However, the global grain stocks-to-use ratio looks to be slightly tighter at 26.4%, the tightest since 2013/14, confirmed Olivia Bonser, analyst, cereals and oilseeds, AHDB.
The grains talk also highlighted the downward pressure that Black Sea supplies are currently exerting on grain prices, with strong and competitive Russian wheat exports expected to continue, she noted.
Ukrainian exports
And Ukraine appears to be exporting more through its "humanitarian corridor," with it maintaining the flow of grain out of the country in November.
Speakers made it clear the El Niño weather event is the one to keep an eye on.
Similar to grains, the oilseeds session began with expectations of strong supplies for the remainder of the season, reported Bonser.
The stocks-to-use ratio for the major oilseeds, including rapeseed, sunseed, and soybeans, is the highest since 2018/19 at 23.8%, she said, adding that this is largely due to an increase in global soybean production this season, and despite a decline in Canadian and Australian rapeseed production.
Again, Ukrainian exports are currently weighing on prices, with rapeseed exports from the country expected to reach 3.4 Mt, relatively in line with last season, as per UkrAgroConsult data.
Spotlight on Brazilian soy crop
El Niño is also a factor to watch in the oilseed markets, with the Brazilian soybean crop in the spotlight. If the Brazilian crop is significantly reduced, this could begin to outweigh higher stocks and support markets.
Ultimately, however, the large supply of soybeans expected this season - if only minor revisions are made to Brazilian production - is likely to weigh on the broader oilseed market in the longer term.
