Agri-commodity tracker

Wheat and corn markets face weather disruptions

22-Oct-2024 - Last updated on 22-Oct-2024 at 13:11 GMT

Sub-optimal weather in Russia and Ukraine is threatening the sowing of winter crops, including wheat, while heavy rains are delaying France’s corn harvest, according to a report from the AHDB.

Following a wet autumn and summer that produced France’s smallest wheat crop in 40 years, September saw the country’s wettest weather in 25 years. This has left much of the cropland waterlogged, with only 10% of soft wheat and 20% of winter barley sown by October 14—well below the five-year averages of 27% and 42%.

Impact on wheat prices and global supply

Analysts from AHDB note that unfavorable weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, combined with rapid export rates and forecasted record-low global wheat stocks for 2024/25, could continue to support wheat futures prices into 2025.

Despite recent price dips, wheat prices remain above key levels. CRM Agri maintains their Q4 price forecasts at $6.10/Bu for Chicago wheat, £202/t for London feed wheat, and €235/t for Paris milling wheat. However, upcoming southern hemisphere harvests and Russian trade restrictions may further affect price trends.

Corn market stability and US export strength

Corn prices have stabilized after an early-October decline, with Chicago futures holding at $4.00/Bu. CRM Agri predicts a 7% price rise in Q4, forecasting $4.30/Bu. The rapid pace of the US harvest—the fastest since 2012—supports a seasonal upswing, though the large US crop could temper gains.

US corn exports are off to a strong start in the 2024/25 season, with 5.0Mt shipped in the first six weeks, marking the fastest start in six years. With an additional 2.2Mt in sales recorded in the latest week, the most in 18 months, CRM Agri anticipates the USDA may raise its forecast for US shipments from the current three-year high of 59.1Mt.

Rising rapeseed and soybean prices

European rapeseed prices rose yesterday, reflecting gains in the global oilseeds market, reported AHDB. Chicago soybean futures also rose as lower prices spurred international demand for US-origin products. Winnipeg canola gained on hopes that Beijing might ease anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean harvest was 81% complete as of October 20, marking the fastest pace since 2010.