The specialists suggest that while Trump’s re-election could slow federal climate initiatives and reduce US participation in international agreements, local governments, private sector investment, and economic momentum in the renewable energy sector are likely to keep the clean energy transition on track.
Dan Lashof, US director of the World Resources Institute, commented: “Another Trump presidency will undeniably stall national efforts to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment.”
He noted, however, that most US state and local leaders, along with private sector entities, remain committed to advancing climate initiatives. “You can count on a chorus of world leaders confirming that they won’t turn their backs on climate and nature goals.”
He pointed to the continued growth in clean energy sectors, such as wind, solar, and battery manufacturing, buoyed by investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act.
“Governors and representatives across both parties now recognize that clean energy creates jobs and drives economic growth,” Lashof said. “President Trump will face bipartisan opposition if he tries to dismantle clean energy incentives.”
The expert also highlighted the urgent need to invest in climate resilience for US croplands, wetlands, and forests, which face increased risks from droughts, wildfires, and floods. He pointed to bipartisan opportunities for climate-smart trade policies, geothermal energy, and industrial decarbonization as potential avenues for economic and environmental gains, regardless of federal inaction. “These initiatives are a win for US manufacturing, national security, and the climate."
The global context
Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, commented on the global context, saying that the world is in a very different place compared to when Trump was last in power. “The global move to renewable energy is now happening at an unprecedented pace. Nothing the US government can do will change the simple fact that renewable energy is cheaper and more reliable than oil, gas, and coal."
Even if Trump were to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again, other nations are unlikely to follow suit, underscoring the continued importance of COP29 in advancing international climate goals, she added.
Otto also remarked on the severe climate impacts the US is facing, noting that nearly every US state is currently experiencing drought, and recent hurricanes have caused significant damage.
“Trump can deny climate change all he wants, but the laws of physics are not swayed by politics.”
Growth of the green economy
Professor Mark Maslin, professor of climatology at University College London, has a slightly different take on the global repercussions of a second Trump term, saying his re-election will likely weaken international climate efforts.
His prior withdrawal from the Paris Agreement allowed other nations to delay action under the guise of US non-participation, he continued.
“Trump declared during his election campaign that he does not believe in climate change. During his first term in office, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and many of us predict he will do this again. Pulling out one of the world superpowers from COP negotiations to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a big deal – as it allows other countries to slow their own decarbonisation and blame the US instead of their own lack of ambition.”
But Maslin also highlighted the rapid growth of the global green economy, valued at over $10 trillion annually, with significant job creation in the US. Investment in the green economy is key to economic growth and job creation, he concluded, adding that while Trump may slow the transition, “the writing is on the wall both politically and economically for fossil fuels.”
Tariffs on Chinese EVs
Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, noted Trump’s limited discussion of climate change on the campaign trail and expressed concerns about potential federal setbacks.
Trump, he said, may withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement and halt commitments to help poorer nations adapt to climate impacts, which is a key topic for the upcoming UN climate summit.
Ward also pointed to Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which could raise costs for US consumers, and his alignment with groups suggesting the abolishment of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This, Ward warned, would leave the US far more vulnerable to extreme weather.
Trade war fears
With former President Trump now re-elected, concerns have resurfaced among US agricultural groups about the potential impacts of a renewed trade war with China. A recent study by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, using data from 2018 tariffs and Trump’s current economic plans, warns that escalated tariffs could severely impact US farmers.
The study’s worst-case scenario projects that soybean exports to China could drop nearly 52% below baseline expectations, with corn exports potentially falling 84% below projected levels.
Conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services and released on October 15, the study estimates that a renewed trade war would trigger "immediate" reductions in corn and soybean exports. It warns that Argentina and Brazil could quickly fill the void left by reduced US exports.
According to the study, while some 2018 tariffs remain in place, China has granted temporary waivers to mitigate costs. However, if China fully reinstates these tariffs or matches Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports with a reciprocal 60% tariff on US goods, the losses for US farmers could be substantial.
A Trump campaign spokesperson told a local US media outlet that the former president's efforts to bolster agricultural trade and rural economies were significant, pointing to policies like the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the trade deals that were brokered during his previous term.
