The EU Agricultural Outlook projects a shift in the animal feed landscape, driven by anticipated declines in pork, beef, and dairy production across the region.
The forecast, covering developments up to 2035, points to evolving consumer demand, sustainability goals, and efficiency gains as key influences reshaping the sector.
Crop-based feed usage
The report signals a downturn in crop-based feed demand, attributed to a transition towards grass-based production systems and enhanced feed efficiency. This shift is expected to stem from advancements in animal genetics and precision feeding systems.
Simultaneously, dairy herd reductions will contribute to the overall decline in feed demand.
Poultry feed demand
However, the poultry sector is poised for growth, found the report.
Rising consumer interest in slow-growing chicken breeds is forecasted to fuel an increase in poultry feed demand.
Poultry’s cost advantage and perceived health benefits could sustain production growth, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. Export opportunities are also expected to bolster the sector, despite avian influenza (AI) remaining a persistent challenge.
Feed prices and import trends
After a projected decline in 2024, feed prices are set to rise post-2025.
Although the EU will continue to rely on oilseed and protein crop imports, volumes are expected to taper off as domestic production increases and demand decreases. Oilseed crushing, notably rapeseed and sunflower, is anticipated to drop, with soybean processing partially offsetting the decline.
Biofuels
Biofuel demand is forecast to diminish alongside road transport decarbonization efforts. A production cap on crop-based biofuels is driving the shift towards advanced biofuels sourced primarily from municipal waste, noted the outlook.
Dairy and livestock developments
Milk production in the EU is nearing a pivotal moment where herd declines will no longer be counterbalanced by yield gains. By 2035, raw milk prices are expected to stay above pre-2022 levels.
In the beef sector, tightening supply, rising costs, and sustainability pressures are forecast to curtail production. Coupled income support and eco-schemes under the CAP could mitigate the decline but are unlikely to reverse it.
Higher average slaughter weights, driven by improved herd and feed management alongside genetics, are anticipated to offer some resilience.
Pork sector contraction
EU pork consumption and production are projected to contract through 2035. Societal criticism of intensive farming practices and African Swine Fever (ASF) persistence will contribute to the sector’s gradual decline. A recovery in Asian pork production is set to reduce EU export volumes, stabilizing by 2035. Despite this, pork prices are likely to stay elevated due to constrained supply and rising input costs.
Environmental and climate indicators
Encouragingly, the outlook foresees environmental and climate improvements.
A combination of reduced livestock numbers, shrinking agricultural land use, and the adoption of sustainable farming practices will drive reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ammonia emissions, and nitrogen surplus.
Enhanced soil management and fertilizer efficiency are expected to play pivotal roles in improving carbon sequestration and limiting soil erosion.