Corn and soybean futures rose sharply in Chicago trading following the release of the USDA’s latest WASDE crop report, according to a CRM Agri review.
Corn futures for March 2025 climbed 3% to reach a six-month high for a spot contract, while soybean futures for the same month gained over 2%, hitting a two-month peak, said the UK grain market experts.
In contrast, wheat futures remained largely unchanged, with USDA estimates meeting market expectations, reported the CRM Agri team.
Corn
The USDA reduced its forecast for US corn stocks for 2024/25 by 5 million metric tons (Mt) to 39.1Mt, far exceeding the market’s anticipated cut of 1.6Mt, said the analysts.
This revision stemmed from a 7 Mt downgrade in the estimated 2024 US corn harvest, now projected at 377.6Mt due to lower-than-expected yields.
Globally, the USDA lowered its 2024/25 corn ending stocks forecast by 3.1Mt to 293.3Mt, the lowest level in a decade. However, this decrease was partially offset by a rise in Chinese inventories, which were revised upward by nearly 3Mt to 294.9Mt, reflecting an improved outlook for China’s 2024 harvest, as per CRM Agri analysis.
In response to tighter supplies, the USDA raised its forecast for average US farmgate corn prices for the current season by $0.15 per bushel to $4.25, though this remains below last season’s $4.55.
Soybeans
Soybean futures also reacted strongly to the USDA’s revised inventory estimates. US soybean stocks for 2024/25 were cut by nearly 2.5Mt to 10.3Mt, well below the expected 300,000-ton reduction.
The adjustment was driven largely by a bigger-than-expected reduction in the estimate for US production last year.
At 118.8Mt, the crop was pegged 2.4Mt smaller than estimated last month, “led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio”, and demoted to the fourth largest on record, noted the CRM Agri analysts.
On a global scale, soybean ending stocks were revised down by 3.5Mt to 128.4Mt, defying expectations for an increase. Brazil’s carryout stocks were reduced by 1Mt to 32.5Mt, reflecting higher domestic demand.
Wheat
In contrast to corn and soybeans, wheat markets saw little movement, as USDA data largely aligned with expectations.
US wheat stocks as of December 1 were reported at 42.7Mt, while US winter wheat sowings for the 2025 harvest were estimated at 34.1 million acres, slightly above market forecasts.
Globally, the USDA made modest adjustments, including a 1Mt reduction in Russia’s 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 46Mt, citing the introduction of a new export quota.
The quota, set to take effect on February 15, 2025, is expected to sharply curtail Russia’s export pace in the second half of the marketing year, commented the CRM Agri team.
Other key revisions included a 500,000-ton cut in Ukraine’s wheat export forecast to 16Mt, due to depleted milling wheat supplies, and a 500,000-ton increase in Argentina’s exports, now projected at 11.5Mt, amid strong demand.
The USDA slightly lowered its forecast for US farmgate wheat prices for 2024/25 by $0.05 per bushel to $5.55, citing market trends and price expectations for the remainder of the year.
