The conversation, which traders hope could prevent a new trade war, led to increased buying of US corn and soybeans, boosting prices, according to CRM Agri.
Energy expansion
In his inauguration speech, Trump reiterated his ambition to revive US manufacturing and expand energy exports globally - goals that could impact agricultural trade policies in the coming years.
South American weather
In South America, severe drought conditions in Argentina are taking a toll on crops. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported a decline in corn crop conditions, with only 39% rated good to excellent, down from 42% the previous week. Poor conditions rose to 14%, prompting the exchange to lower its corn production forecast to 48 million metric tons (Mt), down from an earlier estimate of 50–51 Mt.
Soybean crops in Argentina are also under pressure, with excellent ratings dropping from 32% to 17%, while poor conditions rose to 21%. These weather challenges are likely to influence global supply dynamics, reported the CRM Agri team.
Wheat plantings and exports show mixed trends
The US is reversing a long-term decline in winter wheat plantings, with the USDA projecting a 2% increase for the 2025/26 marketing year, found the latest outlook from the AHDB.
Wheat exports for 2024/25 are expected to reach 23.1 Mt, a 20% year-on-year rise, though inadequate snow cover in parts of the Corn Belt remains a concern, noted that organization’s grain and oilseeds market report.
Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) kept its wheat production forecast for 2024/25 steady at 796 Mt, balancing a cut for Russia with an increase for Australia.
Meanwhile, Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat and corn forecasts slightly due to improved planting in Germany and better harvest expectations in Poland.
Soybean exports
US soybean exports showed mixed results. Weekly export sales for the week ending January 9 were up 97% from the previous week but remained 27% below the four-week average, according to the USDA.
Brazil’s soybeans remain more competitively priced than US beans, weighing on export prospects.
On the positive side, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported record US soybean crushing in December, which could support medium-term prices. However, falling freight rates continue to impact the market, found the AHDB outlook.
Palm oil dynamics
India, the world’s largest palm oil importer, has reduced purchases in January as soybean oil becomes more competitively priced, reported those analysts.
In the EU, soybean imports for the 2024/25 marketing year reached 7.38 Mt by mid-January, up from 6.47 Mt a year ago. The US accounted for nearly half of these imports, followed by Brazil, Ukraine, and Canada.
