WASDE: Higher global wheat stock forecast, corn and soybean projections show mixed results

13-Sep-2024 - Last updated on 13-Sep-2024 at 07:59 GMT

The USDA surprised the market by raising its forecast for global wheat stocks.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest WASDE report yesterday.

It also unexpectedly raised its outlook for the upcoming US corn harvest, noted CRM Agri in a review.

There were only minor adjustments to supply and demand estimates for soybeans though.

Following the publication’s release, Chicago wheat futures for December 2024 fell from two-month highs, ending down 1%. In Europe, Paris milling wheat for December 2024 slipped from a one-month peak to close 0.1% lower, while London’s November milling wheat declined by 0.3%.

Corn prices in Chicago also reversed, falling 1.4% by lunchtime for the December 2024 contract; soybean futures for November 2024 were largely unchanged, reported the CRM Agri team.

Meanwhile, Paris rapeseed for November 2024 edged up 0.2%, boosted by a reduction in the USDA’s forecast for the EU’s rapeseed harvest and a slight increase in expected imports, according to the analysts.

Wheat

The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat stocks by 600,000 tons, now expecting 257.2Mt by the end of 2024/25. Although still at a nine-year low, the new estimate was higher than traders had predicted, noted CRM Agri's report.

This adjustment was due to higher-than-expected wheat stock levels in Canada and larger harvest estimates for Australia and Ukraine, which outweighed a 4.0Mt cut in the EU’s output forecast, said the analysts. Poor weather during harvests in France and Germany caused significant setbacks. The USDA noted that excessive rainfall in parts of Europe hampered farm work and delayed harvests, contributing to disappointing results.

Earlier, the French consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its estimate for the EU soft wheat harvest to a 12-year low due to similar weather issues. The USDA also reduced its forecast for UK wheat stocks, due to higher feed consumption estimates.

Corn

The USDA increased its forecast for this year’s US corn harvest by 1 million metric tons (Mt), reaching 385.7Mt, thanks to slightly better yields. This contradicted market expectations of a small cut in production.

As a result, the estimate for US stockpiles at the end of the season was reduced by less than expected, commented the UK oilseed and grain market specialists.

Globally, corn stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 1.8Mt to 308.4Mt due to lower-than-expected harvests in the EU and Russia, driven by ongoing dry weather and heat in the Black Sea region. The EU crop forecast was reduced by 1.5Mt, while import estimates rose by 1.0Mt.

Soybeans

The USDA kept its forecast for the US soybean harvest nearly unchanged at 124.8Mt, meeting market expectations. US soybean stocks at the end of 2024/25 were slightly reduced due to minor changes in demand. Globally, the USDA raised its world soybean stock forecast by 280,000 tons to 134.6Mt, due to higher supply expectations from Argentina.